Tariff cuts for refined oil products or the two biggest beneficiaries of oil shortages are the biggest beneficiaries

Some experts indicated that the fundamental solution to the tension of oil supply is to liberalize the import monopoly of petroleum and refined oil and allow all companies to import petroleum and refined oil.

According to the Ministry of Finance, since January 1, 2012, China's import and export tariffs will be partially adjusted. In order to actively expand imports and meet domestic economic and social development and consumer demand, in 2012 China will implement a lower tentative tariff rate for imports of more than 730 commodities, with an average tax rate of 4.4%, which is more than 50% lower than the MFN tariff rate. These products include refined oil and so on.

The current import tariff on refined oil is lowered. Who is the most profitable party? Can it thus relieve the oil supply tensions that have occurred in two consecutive years?

Nearly 30% of the petrol stations in the country are limited to refueling or cutting off fuel. Following the most serious oil supply shortage in the country in October this year, oil supply tensions have reappeared recently.

Affected by factors such as the expected increase in domestic oil prices, limited supply by wholesale units, and unsatisfactory transport of impeded transportation resources, the tension in the country was different from that in October. The diesel supply in recent days showed a tight pattern of North Songnan. In East China, Central China, South China, and Southwest China, there was a renewed shortage of diesel supplies. Nearly 30% of the social oil stations were limited to refueling or cutting off oil. Only in the urban area of a€?a€?Changsha, Hunan, there are a large number of private gas stations hanging out the "no diesel" brand.

In view of the current tight supply of diesel fuel in central China, local industry analysts believe that with the further intensification of the Xiangjiang River's dryness, the difficulty of transporting oil products will further increase. The approaching winter peaks will also lead to an increase in household electricity consumption. The emergence of power shortage will inevitably increase the demand for diesel; the end of the year is the peak season of the logistics industry. The arrival of the Spring Festival will increase the demand for diesel oil in the transportation industry. Therefore, the tight supply of diesel oil may further increase.

For the new round of tight oil supply reasons, analyst Shen Tao believes that the international crude oil prices have not been able to meet the requirements of refined oil products, making the domestic product oil distribution arbitrage space compression, market speculation and hoarding enthusiasm. With the completion of the annual sales plan, the wholesale unit began to contract resources, and in order to avoid a sharp drop in oil prices and to accumulate resources for the upcoming Spring Festival, it insisted on controlling sales. Unlike the impact of major supply constraints in East China and South China, the reason for the tight oil supply in central and southwestern China is also due to the fact that the dry season in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River affected the diesel resources in central China and Sichuan and Chongqing. In addition, near the Spring Festival, the demand for diesel for buses of various cargo trucks and passenger transportation increased, further exacerbating the tightness of oil supply.

Tariff cuts for refined oil products have helped ease oil supply tensions. In recent years, the contradiction between supply and demand for domestic refined oil products has always been sharp. There is a tight diesel supply situation during the peak demand season. If these problems are solved, our country needs not only to rapidly increase domestic production capacity. To achieve self-sufficiency in the demand for refined oil products, we also need to encourage imports to meet the short-term expansion of domestic demand.

According to Zhongyu information statistics, refined oil import data show that from January to November, China's cumulative import of refined oil 36.56 million tons, an increase of 11.1% over the same period last year, 32.92 million tons; in November alone 3.35 million tons of refined oil imports, This was an increase of 15.12% from the previous quarter.

Song Zhichen, an energy industry researcher, said in an interview with reporters that the apparent consumption of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and other refined products in China was 270 million tons in 2010. In 2010, China's net imports of refined oil products were 10 million tons. With the reduction of import tariffs on refined oil products, the total volume of refined oil imports is expected to increase further. This will, to a certain extent, make up for the gap in the supply of refined oil products and help ease oil supply tensions.

In addition, due to the tight supply of domestic refined oil products, and the qualification of refined oil imports is basically in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec, PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. tend to increase the import volume of refined oil products. This has made up for the shortage of refined oil supply and increased the number of companies. Profits, on the other hand, also reflect the responsibility of central SOEs to protect the supply of refined oil. The government's introduction of this measure, to a large extent, also hopes that the two major oil companies can increase the import of refined oil and protect the supply of domestic refined oil.

It is worth noting that the tariff reduction of the refined oil products by the two major oil companies is a reduction of import tariffs on refined oil products and will ease oil supply tensions to some extent. However, some experts said that the oil supply may not disappear.

As early as October of this year when there was a wide range of oil supply tensions, industry insiders said that it was not really oil shortage, but that the two oil companies were unwilling to give oil to private companies because they were dissatisfied with the oil price cuts at the time.

From the aspect of refined oil and crude oil, the reduction in import tariffs has no benefit to the local refining enterprises, because almost all of the market share of crude oil and refined oil products has been shared by Sinopec and PetroChina. "Control.

According to statistics, the highest retail price of 93# gasoline is about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the highest retail price of 97# gasoline is about 9,820 yuan/ton, which is currently calculated from the national III standard in southern China. At present, one ton of gasoline No. 95 is imported from Singapore. In addition to shipping and other expenses, the CIF is only 8746 yuan/ton, compared with 93# gasoline, the net profit is about 654 yuan/ton, compared with 97# gasoline, the net profit is about 1074 yuan/ton; The retail price of domestic No. 0 diesel is around 8,458 yuan/ton, while the net profit of importing one ton of Singapore's 0.05% diesel oil is also as high as 756 yuan/ton.

Some analysts believe that as the "two giants" firmly seize the right to import crude oil and refined oil, making them the only one of the tariff cuts and the biggest beneficiaries. In the face of repeated domestic oil supply tensions, the "two giants" have increasingly enlarged the bargaining chips in the market, and private enterprises and local refining companies can only rely on the meager profits of imported fuel oil to support operations. If the import and export rights of crude oil and refined oil are still manipulated by the a€?big twoa€?, private enterprises and local refining enterprises can only be the supporting role for tariff adjustment.

Chen Bingcai, deputy director of the Department of Decision-making at the National School of Administration, once said that the root cause of the tight oil supply is that the refined oil price adjustment mechanism is not smooth. Sinopec and PetroChinaa€?s monopoly of petroleum and refined oil imports is due to the policy granting them import monopoly rights. Therefore, the fundamental problem and the way out is to liberalize the import monopoly of petroleum and refined oil and allow all companies to import petroleum and refined oil. It is also because of the unfairness of the oil import policy that many companies want to invest overseas in the oil industry and cannot import oil into the country.

a€?Original oil industry chain monopoly plus government pricing, if the policy is not reserved for the survival of private gas stations, private enterprises squeezed out by the state-owned oil companies is only a matter of time.a€? Lin Boqiang told reporters, with the international market, oil prices, domestic supply and demand at the same time The a€?divergencea€? of the refined oil pricing mechanism is the main reason that led to a€?a price cut for refined oil on the oil shortagea€?.

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